Saturday, 29 August 2009

Math Class: The Profitability of Glyphs


Edit: By re-reading the post today I see it is not quite as horrible as I thought yesterday when I wrote it. So don't worry about my comments on how hard this is to understand, I was pretty tired when I wrote that.

If you have read my first "Math Class" post you can see I came to the conclusion my inks cost about 0.33g/each. That means that my glyphs cost between 0.83g (0.33g for the ink and 0.5g for the parchment) and 1g16s for those who uses two inks (0.66 + 0.5).

So why am I bringing this up? Well, I guess most of you know about the goblin saying "Time is money" and what opportunity cost is. For you who don't I will give a short explanation:

Ok, I will give you an simple example. Lets say a player got mining and blacksmithing and wants to make some eternal belt buckles, he then goes to wintergrasp to mine some saronite and farm some eternals. He has now farmed 8 saronite ores, 1 eternal water, 1 etarnal earth and 1 eternal shadow.

On the AH these sells for 6, 8, 7 and 4 gold respectively. That means the total value of all these items is 6 + 8 + 7 + 4 = 25 gold. He looks at the price for the belt buckle at the AH and sees that it's selling for 23 gold.

Without thinking this person posts his buckle on the AH for 20g to get it sold fast. If you compare this to selling the mats you see he looses out on 5 gold by doing this (not to mention that farming the mats yourself is incredibly unefficent).

So the above is an example of opportunity cost, while he did make some money he could have made more from selling the mats. So in short, opportunity cost is (when it comes to money) to choose between two or more things that both are profitable to choose the most profitable one.

But as you propably didn't understand a word of that, here's a wikipedia page.

Here you who already know about opportunity cost can start reading

But what my point with this post is to see how much I will have to sell my glyphs for to get an good gold/hour ratio. Let me explain in a little more detail:

As I mentioned in my previous Math Class post it takes 4 seconds to make an ink, I decided to add 2 to make up for human error but I don't think it's necessary right now.

So lets see how long it takes to make one glyph. 3-6 seconds per mill (some glyphs require 2 inks = 4 pigments, I also added an one second delay on each mill) which means 2-4 seconds milling per ink (3 pigments per mill but only 2 per ink), 2-4 seconds to make the ink (once again, some require 2 inks) and 3 seconds to make the glyph itself.

For a 1 ink glyph that is 2 + 2 + 3 = 7 and for a two ink glyph 4 + 4 + 3 = 11.
I'd say about a third of all glyphs require 2 inks (propably wrong but shouldn't be too far of) so that means that we'll have to add the time diference between a two ink glyph and a one ink glyph divided by three on the time of a one ink glyph.

11 - 7 = 4 which divided by 3 is 1.33. That means the average time per glyph is 7 + 1.33 = 8.33seconds.

So, as I said in the beginning my one ink glyphs cost 0.83 gold to make and the two ink ones 1.16 gold. Now lets do the same calculations as we did with the time spent. The price diference is 0.33 gold, one third of the glyphs are two ink ones, thus we add 1/3 of 0.33 gold on the one ink glyph price. This puts the average price at 0.94 gold (0.83 + 0.11).
Edit: The above prices are calculated using the cost if I sold all snowfall inks, see the next post to see why this no longer is true.

So what does this tell us? That the time cost per glyph is 8.33 seconds and the gold cost is 0.94 gold (or 94 silver). Since each hour got 3600 seconds I can then make about 432 glyphs/hour (3600/8.33).

This means, that every gold above 94 silver I sell my glyphs for I make about 300 gold per hour (canceling and reposting does take a lot of time). So that means, I can put my threshold as low as 1g94s and still be pretty sure to make at least 300 gold/hour, but of course it will be a lot higher as most glyphs will sell for more.

I find these high numbers very impressive and have a hard time beliving I did all calculations right (but I do hope so), but I am currently way to tired to check it all up but just make a comment if you notice any mistakes.

If nobody notices any huge mistakes I may even lower my threshold down to 2 gold as I will still make a good gold per hour while going lower than most other people.

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